At the beginning of the last century New Zealand was occupied by a Maori population estimated at between 100,000 and 200,000, and by about 50 Europeans. Today the total population has passed 2½ million; and the Maoris, once considered to be a dying race, have a rate of natural increase twice that of the European population.
The actual size of the pre-European Maori population is uncertain. Captain Cook, whose first visit to New Zealand was in 1769, estimated that there were about 100,000 Maoris, but he did not visit some of the most populous inland centres, and his estimate was almost certainly low. In all likelihood the true figure was at least double this. There seems no doubt that contact with Europeans was speedily followed by a serious decline in Maori numbers.
Information on early European numbers is equally scanty. At the beginning of the nineteenth century there was neither the need nor the machinery for collecting statistics of the small, scattered European settlements then existing. The figure of “about 50”, often quoted as the European population of New Zealand in 1800, is no more than a reasonable approximation. By 1815 the total of Europeans in New Zealand is believed to have been about 200. This increase reflects the expansion of trade and the growing numbers of traders and traders' agents settled ashore; the extension of whaling and sealing activities; and the establishment of the first mission. By the late 1830s the European population of New Zealand had risen to around 2,000.
In 1840 the first organised settlement, Britannia (Petone), was established by the New Zealand Company on the banks of the Hutt River. Threatened by flood, earthquake, and Maori hostility it was moved later that same year to Thorndon in Wellington. Edward Gibbon Wakefield, the founder of the Company, planned a New Zealand which should reproduce a little contemporary England, with the same pattern of social classes and a small mixed-farm economy. His success was only partial, but the real achievement of the New Zealand Company lay in bringing out about 12,000 settlers between 1840 and 1850; in the founding of the settlements of Wellington, Nelson, Taranaki, and Wanganui; and in the inspiration and example it gave to the two new associations that founded Otago in 1848 and Canterbury in 1850. Auckland was made the capital of the colony in 1840.
As a result of these colonising efforts, the European population in the period 1840–50 increased over tenfold, from about 2,050 at the beginning of 1840 to 22,108 in 1850.
New Zealand was proclaimed a separate colony in 1841 and some form of statistical investigation into the population of the new colony seems to have taken place in that year. From that time onward the arrival of immigrants and the relatively rapid growth in population showed the need for accurate and regular statistical investigation. For some years it was the custom to take the count of the population annually in the different settlements, often under the supervision of the local resident magistrates. Apparently, whalers and others living in remote settlements were not included, and as there was no uniformity regarding date, method, or scope of the inquiry, it was impossible to compile accurate statistical data for the country as a whole. The statistics obtained were preserved in a series of manuscript Blue Books.
By 1851 the rapid growth and development of the colony had shown the need for regular, authentic population data on a uniform basis for the whole country. When the first general census was taken in 1851, the enumeration was left to the governments of New Ulster and New Munster, the two provinces into which the country was then divided, but identical census schedules were used throughout the colony. The census, which was confined to Europeans, revealed a population of 26,707.
The second general census should have been taken in 1854, but the sequence was upset by the intervention of the Imperial Act of 1852 which granted representative government to the colony, abolished the short-lived provinces of New Ulster and New Munster, and in their place constituted the six new provinces of Auckland, New Plymouth, Wellington, Nelson, Canterbury, and Otago. The individual provinces were to be responsible for the enumeration of their own inhabitants, but the results proved unsatisfactory and a new Census Act was passed in 1858. This Act instituted three-yearly censuses, of which the first was taken in December 1858 and the last in March 1874. In 1877 a new Census Act made provision for censuses in 1878 and 1881 and in every fifth year thereafter. This quinquennial sequence has been maintained to the present time, with two exceptions. The census due in 1931 was postponed owing to the economic depression; that due in 1941 was postponed until 1945 owing to wartime conditions. The sequence of five-yearly censuses was resumed in 1951.
The first census of the Maori population was taken between September 1857 and September 1858. The total Maori population was given as 56,049, of whom 38,269 lived in the province of Auckland, but the published tables included the precautionary phrase, “as far as can be ascertained”. Warfare between Maoris and Europeans, which continued intermittently in certain areas of the North Island from 1860 until 1874, prevented any further general censuses of Maoris until 1874.
The Maori censuses of 1874 and 1878 simply covered the numbers in each subtribe, the sex, and age – whether over or under 15 years. The Maori census of 1881 showed an apparent increase in Maori numbers – from 45,542 in 1878 to 46,141 in 1881 – but this was viewed with scepticism by Native Department officers, who found it conflicting with their experience. It seems probable that the increase was due to an improved enumeration, and that the long decline in Maori numbers continued. At the census of 1886 a more precise and detailed enumeration was attempted, to include exact ages and details of stock and cultivated land. Many Maoris proved deeply suspicious of the Government's motives, especially when it came to the enumeration of stock and cultivations. When taking these early Maori censuses, the census officers did not visit every dwelling. Much of the information was obtained from the wise men and elders of the tribes. Accustomed as they were to the oral transmission of tribal history, legends, and information of all kinds, they were well acquainted with the details required.
In 1916 it was decided that, as the small minority of Maoris in the South Island did not justify the expense of a separate census, they should be enumerated in conjunction with the Europeans. The system proved satisfactory, and was used again in 1921. In 1926 the Maori census was taken on a specific night instead of following former procedure, and for the first time there was no separate organisation to deal with the Maori people. Instead, in districts with large Maori populations, special sub-enumerators were employed who were acquainted with Maori conditions and who either spoke Maori or were accompanied by interpreters. The Maori population was recorded in small divisions instead of, as previously, in total numbers for each county. For the first time, the North Island Maoris – the great bulk of the Maori population – were enumerated by means of schedules which were filled in by individual Maori householders. A special Maori schedule was produced, of simplified scope and character, and with the headings and questions printed both in English and in Maori. Some 83 per cent of North Island Maoris used this form; the remainder used the normal European schedule.
The Maori Census of 1926 proved successful, and the same methods were used in 1936 and 1945. For more recent censuses, no special Maori schedules have been provided. Maoris and Europeans alike are now required to complete the same types of schedules.
Population censuses in New Zealand are now taken under the authority of the Statistics Act of 1955, which continued the provision for a quinquennial census. While some countries such as Great Britain and the United States of America have a ten-yearly census, a five-yearly census is considered more suitable for those recently developed countries which have relatively rapid changes in population.
The potential field of census inquiry is enormous, but a variety of factors limit the actual inquiries made. These include:
The character and education of the people. This is a severely limiting factor in countries with a low standard of literacy or having a variety of races and languages. In New Zealand the standard of education is high and no great difficulties are experienced provided the questions are clearly expressed.
The attitude of public opinion. Complete and accurate information depends on the good will and cooperation of the people. It is important that the public should realise both the usefulness of the information obtained and the fact that individual returns are absolutely confidential.
The danger of overloading the census schedule.
The existence of other methods of obtaining the information required.
The question of expense.
The scope of the present-day New Zealand census is clearly indicated by the titles of the 10 volumes in which the results of the 1961 census have been published. They are: Increase and Location of Population; Ages and Marital Status; Religious Professions; Industries and Occupations; Incomes; Birthplaces and Duration of Residence of Overseas-born; Race; Maori Population and Dwellings; Dwellings and Households; and the General Report, which includes details of war service, dependent children, and usual places of residence. Two separate appendices contain life tables based on census and mortality statistics, and a census of poultry.
The types of schedules used have changed considerably over the years. In the early censuses a single large schedule was used for each household. Personal schedules were originally produced for use on shipboard and in hotels, camps, etc., but the privacy and convenience they offered led to a great extension of their use. For recent censuses two schedules have been used – a dwelling schedule, giving details of the dwelling, and a personal schedule for each person in the household.
An estimated European population of 50 in 1800 had risen to 59,413 – about 51 per cent of the total population – in 1858. By 1901 Europeans formed 94·4 per cent of the population, and the proportion has changed very little since that time. In 1961, Europeans formed 93·1 per cent of the population. The following table shows the increases in European population from 1851 to 1961.
The European population has shown increases at every census, although with considerable fluctuations in the rate of growth. Until the late seventies, the chief source of increase was through immigration, which showed marked periods of boom and decline. The discovery of gold in 1861 was a dominant factor in the population increase of 157,024, or 160·38 per cent, during the period between the December 1861 and the February 1871 censuses. Another boom in population occurred between 1871 and 1881, when the population was almost doubled, largely as a result of Julius Vogel's vigorous public works and immigration policy. In the peak year of 1874 there was a net inflow of 38,106, of whom 32,118 were Government-assisted immigrants. The depression of the late eighties and early nineties brought about a virtual cessation of gains from migration, but by that time natural increase had become the main component of population growth.
The rate of natural increase of the European population reached its peak in 1876–80, when the rate was 29·41 per 1,000 persons, and then fell almost continuously to the trough of 1936, when the rate was 7·89 per 1,000 persons. Since the New Zealand death rate has always been relatively low and stable, the decline was almost wholly due to the birthrate which, in fact, fell from 41·21 per 1,000 in 1876–80 to 16·64 per 1,000 in 1936.
| Increase in European Population, 1851–1961 | |||
| Census | Population | Intercensal Increase | Average Annual Increase |
| (Per Cent) | (Per Cent) | ||
| December 1851 | 26,707 | .. | .. |
| December 1858 | 59,413 | 122·46 | 12·14 |
| December 18611 | 97,904 | 64·79 | 18·26 |
| December 1864 | 171,009 | 74·67 | 20·74 |
| December 1867 | 217,436 | 27·15 | 8·20 |
| February 1871 | 254,928 | 17·24 | 5·11 |
| March 1874 | 297,654 | 16·76 | 5·29 |
| March 1878 | 412,465 | 38·57 | 8·49 |
| April 1881 | 487,889 | 18·29 | 5·60 |
| March 1886 | 576,524 | 18·17 | 3·41 |
| April 1891 | 624,455 | 8·31 | 1·60 |
| April 1896 | 701,094 | 12·27 | 2·33 |
| March 19012 | 770,304 | 9·87 | 1·91 |
| April 1906 | 885,995 | 15·02 | 2·79 |
| April 1911 | 1,005,585 | 13·50 | 2·60 |
| October 19162 | 1,096,228 | 9·01 | 1·57 |
| April 1921 | 1,214,677 | 10·81 | 2·31 |
| April 1926 | 1,344,469 | 10·69 | 2·05 |
| March 1936 | 1,491,484 | 10·93 | 1·05 |
| September 19452 | 1,603,554 | 7·51 | 0·77 |
| April 19512 | 1,823,796 | 13·73 | 2·34 |
| April 19562 | 2,036,911 | 11·69 | 2·24 |
| April 1961 | 2,247,898 | 10·36 | 1·99 |
1 Figures from 1861 adjusted to exclude all Maori-European half-castes.
2 Excludes armed forces absent overseas at census date.
A declining birthrate was common to the Western World in the thirties, and the depression merely accentuated the decline. With the economic recovery of the late thirties, the birthrate began to rise, possibly as a result of marriages delayed by bad times. In 1940, the birthrate rose in the course of one year to the highest rate since 1925, and the increased marriage rates in early wartime sent it even higher in 1941. The fall in 1942-43 may be attributed to the absence of troops overseas, the general dislocation of population, and uncertain war prospects. In 1944, the easing of the immediate threat to New Zealand, the partial demobilisation of the home forces, and the presence of American troops were doubtless responsible for the rise, which was accelerated in 1945 with the return of peace conditions and the consequent very high marriage rate. In 1947 the birthrate reached a peak: at 26·47 per 1,000 it was the highest since 1906–12. The subsequent fall has been much slighter than was predicted, and the rate has remained fairly stable throughout the fifties. During the year 1961 the birthrate among the European population was 25·53 per 1,000.
Until 1951 the term “Maori” was restricted for census purposes to full-blooded Maoris and Maori-Europeans of half or more Maori blood. In 1951 the definition was extended to include those of Maori – other Polynesian descent, and in 1956 it was further extended to include those of Maori – other than European origin, provided that they were of half or more Maori blood.
The following table shows the Maori population from 1857 to 1961 with numerical and percentage changes between each census. It must be emphasised that the earlier figures are (to quote the Registrar-General in 1858) “as nearly as could be ascertained by the zealous efforts of competent persons” rather than completely accurate records. While the numbers of Maoris in pre-European times can only be roughly estimated, it is certain that the advent of the European was followed by a long decline in Maori numbers which lasted almost to the end of the nineteenth century. This has been blamed on a number of factors:
Diseases hitherto unknown in New Zealand were introduced by the Europeans and took a heavy toll of the Maoris. Chief among these were typhoid, measles, venereal disease, and, above all, tuberculosis. Consumptive patients in crowded, unventilated sleeping huts spread this latter disease without check. The dispersal of kinsmen gathered in infected villages to mourn the dead carried typhoid from village to village.
In some parts, and especially in the Wairarapa and Wellington districts, the Maoris moved their villages from healthy hilltop sites to low, often swampy, ground. The decline of the old pagan religion led to a neglect of the sanitary code bound up with it, and the consequent pollution of lakes and streams.
Sick Maoris relied on the ministrations of their priestly healers, the tohungas, whose traditional remedies were useless against the introduced diseases.
Child mortality was very high. The enumerator in Taranaki in 1891 reported that probably not more than one in three Maori children would survive to maturity.
Heavy casualties were sustained in tribal warfare following the introduction of firearms and, during the sixties, in the Maori Wars.
A feeling of race-despair and loss of “mana” engendered by loss of land to the European, by defeat in war, and by the general breakdown in health.
| Maori Population | |||
| Census | Population | Numerical Increase | Percentage Increase |
| 1857–58 | 56,409 | .. | .. |
| 1874 | 47,330 | –8,719 | –15·6 |
| 1878 | 45,542 | –1,788 | –3·8 |
| 1881 | 46,141 | 599 | 1·3 |
| 1886 | 43,927 | –2,214 | –4·8 |
| 1891 | 44,177 | 250 | 0·6 |
| 1896 | 42,113 | –2,064 | –4·7 |
| 1901 | 45,549 | 3,436 | 8·2 |
| 1906 | 50,309 | 4,760 | 10·5 |
| 1911 | 52,723 | 2,414 | 4·8 |
| 19161 | 52,997 | 274 | 0·5 |
| 1921 | 56,987 | 3,990 | 7·5 |
| 1926 | 63,670 | 6,683 | 11·7 |
| 1936 | 82,326 | 18,656 | 29·3 |
| 19451 | 98,744 | 16,418 | 19·9 |
| 19452 | 100,044 | 17,718 | 21·5 |
| 19511 | 115,676 | 16,932 | 17·1 |
| 19512 | 115,740 | 15,696 | 15·7 |
| 19561 | 137,151 | 21,475 | 18·6 |
| 19562 | 137,341 | 21,601 | 18·7 |
| 19611 | 167,086 | 29,935 | 21·8 |
| 19612 | 167,390 | 30,049 | 21·9 |
1 Exclusive of members of armed forces overseas.
2 Inclusive of members of armed forces overseas.
Contemporary reports frequently state that those tribes more remote from contact with Europeans were healthier and had more children. Between 1857 and 1874 the Maori population declined by 8,719 or nearly 16 per cent. By 1896 the number of Maoris had fallen from a probable 200,000 or more in pre-European times to 42,113.
The twentieth century, however, saw a resurgence of vitality among the Maori people. In recent years their high rate of increase has provided a strong contrast to the long decline during the nineteenth century, when Maori and Pakeha alike seem to have concluded that the race was doomed. The decline was reversed at the beginning of this century, and each census since 1901 has seen an increase. Since 1921 the Maori race has increased at a higher rate than the European, although the European population has received considerable increments from immigration, whereas the Maori population has relied on natural increase. In the year ended 31 December 1961, the Maori birthrate was 46·41 per 1,000 of mean population, the highest rate recorded during the decade.
General Survey: Between 1956 and 1961 the population of New Zealand increased by 240,922, or 11·08 per cent. This compared with a rise of 12·10 per cent between 1951 and 1956, and with a rise of 13·93 per cent during the previous intercensal period. When armed forces overseas are included, the percentage increase between 1956 and 1961 becomes 11·09 per cent; that between 1951 and 1956 remains at 12·10 per cent; while the increase between 1945 and 1951 falls to 11·08 per cent.
The following table shows the size of the total population of New Zealand from the census of 1858 to that of 1961. It also shows the increases between censuses, and the average annual percentage increase. There were no censuses of Maoris in 1851, 1861, 1864, 1867, and 1871, and these years have accordingly been omitted from the table.
| Increase in Total Population, 1858–1961 | ||||
| Census | Population | Numerical Increase | Percentage Increase | Average Annual Percentage Increase |
| 1858 | 115,462 | .. | .. | .. |
| 1874 | 344,984 | .. | .. | .. |
| 1878 | 458,007 | 113,023 | 32·76 | 7·33 |
| 1881 | 534,030 | 76,023 | 16·60 | 5·10 |
| 1886 | 620,451 | 86,421 | 16·18 | 3·05 |
| 1891 | 668,632 | 48,181 | 7·77 | 1·50 |
| 1896 | 743,207 | 74,575 | 11·15 | 2·13 |
| 19011 | 815,853 | 72,646 | 9·77 | 1·89 |
| 1906 | 936,304 | 120,451 | 14·76 | 2·75 |
| 1911 | 1,058,308 | 122,004 | 13·03 | 2·52 |
| 19161 | 1,149,225 | 90,917 | 8·59 | 1·50 |
| 1921 | 1,271,664 | 122,439 | 10·65 | 2·27 |
| 1926 | 1,408,139 | 136,475 | 10·73 | 2·06 |
| 1936 | 1,573,810 | 165,671 | 11·77 | 1·13 |
| 19451 | 1,702,298 | 128,488 | 8·16 | 0·83 |
| 19452 | 1,747,679 | 173,869 | 11·05 | 1·11 |
| 19511 | 1,939,472 | 237,174 | 13·93 | 2·37 |
| 19512 | 1,941,366 | 193,687 | 11·08 | 1·91 |
| 19562 | 2,174,062 | 234,590 | 12·10 | 2·31 |
| 19562 | 2,176,224 | 234,858 | 12·10 | 2·31 |
| 19611 | 2,414,984 | 240,922 | 11·08 | 2·12 |
| 19612 | 2,417,543 | 241,319 | 11·09 | 2·13 |
1 Excludes members of armed forces absent overseas.
2Includes members of armed forces absent overseas.
Numerically, the increase in population between 1956 and 1961 is the highest intercensal increase recorded in New Zealand. The highest number previously recorded was between 1945 and 1951, but this was swollen by the return of the wartime servicemen from overseas. Of the total increase of 240,922 between the censuses of 1956 and 1961, natural increase (births less deaths) contributed 83·0 per cent. The balance was made up by migration (arrivals less departures).
The steady growth in the population of New Zealand is due to two factors: a relatively high rate of natural increase, especially among the Maori people; and continued immigration, especially from the United Kingdom, Australia, and the Netherlands.
Population sizes and relationships are part of a dynamic, not a static, problem. This reminder may appear unnecessary; but it is surprising how many fallacious statements arise from neglect of it. The dynamics of New Zealand population growth can be illustrated by the construction of a simplified table showing increases on a day by day basis. For this, 1964 birthrates and death rates and population figures have been used, and a migration inflow of 15,000 a year has been assumed.
| Births | add | 172 a day |
| Deaths | deduct | 63 a day |
| Natural increase therefore | adds | 109 a day |
| Migration adds a net | 41 a day | |
| Population increases | 150 a day |
The relative importance of births as an influence on population growth should be noted.
On a percentage basis comparison, the population increase is slower in the United States of America than it is in New Zealand, but in the former country the present population is some 70 times as large. To provide for comparison, most population studies are on a percentage, or per 1,000, basis. Here are the above New Zealand components of growth on this basis:
| Population Growth Components | |
| Annual Change Per 1,000 of Population | |
| Births | + 24 |
| Deaths | - 9 |
| Births less deaths (Natural increase) | + 15 |
| Migration (net) | + 6 |
| Population increase | + 21 |
From the point of view of short-term changes in the size of the population, the annual inflows and outflows from births, deaths, and migration may provide the necessary data for study, but in considering the age structure of the population, the age groupings in which these inflows and outflows occur must also be noted. Again, for any longer-term study of population trends, we must be concerned with the present and future age structure of the population as well as with the inflows and outflows, because the birthrates and death rates to which the population will be subjected are closely related to its age structure.
Changing Age Structure: The following table, which is based on the previous table, gives an impression of the age distribution of the growth components. To give a proper impression of relative size, all figures are quoted per 10,000 of the total population. The age distribution of the population and of births and deaths is based on recent experience. Age distribution of the migration inflow is taken as the average for the period 1938–57.
|
Typical Age Distribution of Population Growth
Components
(All expressed per 10,000 of total population) |
||||
| Age Group | Population | Annual Births | Annual Deaths | Annual Migration |
| 0–14 | 3,282 | + 240 | - 7 | + 13 |
| 15–29 | 2,197 | .. | - 2 | + 24 |
| 30–44 | 1,814 | .. | - 4 | + 16 |
| 45–59 | 1,510 | .. | - 11 | + 4 |
| 60–74 | 883 | .. | - 26 | + 1 |
| 75 + | 314 | .. | - 38 | 0 |
| Total | 10,000 | + 240 | - 88 | +p 58 |
To complete the picture for each age group, the numbers of people who pass out of an age group each year by reaching the lowest age for the following group must be noted. For convenience these are shown separately below. The figures are, however, directly comparable with those in the previous table.
|
Typical Annual Movements Between Groups
(Per 10,000 of total population) |
||
| Age Group | Persons Reaching the Lowest Age in this Group | Persons Passing the Highest Age in this Group |
| 0–14 | + 240* | - 190 |
| 15–29 | + 190 | - 114 |
| 30–44 | + 114 | - 120 |
| 45–59 | + 120 | - 83 |
| 60–74 | + 83 | - 41 |
| 75 + | + 41 | .. |
*Births
The annual movements shown in this table form by far the largest growth components in all except the oldest age groups, and obviously they are closely related to the number of births in previous years. For example, the number of people reaching the age of 45 during the present year is affected to a degree by past migration and death rates, but it is mainly decided by the number of babies born 45 years ago. Thus, the past rates of growth of the population have an all-important influence on the present age structure. The fact that as much as 33 per cent of the New Zealand population is aged under 15, and 72 per cent under 45, does not of course indicate a high mortality rate. Its main cause is the rapid growth of population in the past.
Apart from changes in crude birthrates and the effects of mortality and migration, those in the age group 15 to 29 were born on average 15 years before those in the age group of the under fifteens. Their parents were part of the population which existed 15 years earlier. This fact, in a population growing as fast as New Zealand's, means that their parents were part of a population only three-quarters as large. Applying this sort of reasoning successively to higher age groups, it is easy to see that even where mortality rates are low and migration inflow quite high, a population which has grown rapidly for many years is going to have a very small proportion of its people in the older age groups and a very large proportion in the younger age groups.
The effects of rapid natural increase on age structure are clearly demonstrated in the pattern of Maori population. The result of the high rate of natural increase in recent years (38·14 per 1,000 in 1961: over twice that of the European population) is that 48 per cent of Maoris are below 15 years of age and almost three-quarters are below 30 years of age.
This effect of fast population growth – the tendency for those in the younger age groups to be relatively numerous – has many sociological effects. The high relative cost and burden of education and the difficulty in maintaining an adequate ratio of teachers to pupils in schools and universities are readily apparent, as is the relatively small burden of making adequate provision for the aged.
A population trend affecting the birthrate is that towards marriage at younger ages.
The table shows, from 1920 onwards, the proportions of men and women married at each age group to every 100 marriages.
It will be seen that the proportion of minors among persons marrying has been increasing over a fairly long period. In the latest available year, one bride in every three was under 21 years of age, the proportion for grooms being one in 12.
A comparison of the census tables of marital status for decennial age groups over a 35-year period – 1926 to 1961 – reveals an increased proportion of married persons in all age groups. The figures for the 16 to 24 years age group illustrate the trend towards younger marriages. From this group, in 1926, only 72 out of every 1,000 men and 183 out of every 1,000 women were married; in 1961 the proportions were 144 out of every 1,000 men and 347 out of every 1,000 women. In the 25 to 34 years age group, the proportions married increased from 575 to 756 per 1,000 men, and from 694 to 875 per 1,000 women in the same period. (Incidentally, the greater proportion of married women to married men in these age groups illustrates the tendency for men to marry women younger than themselves.)
The proportion of young marriages provides a barometer of economic conditions. Those married in the 16 to 24 years age group and the 25 to 34 years age group, showed a considerable increase at the 1945 census, and the proportion has risen steadily ever since; but the years between 1926 and 1936 saw a fall, due no doubt to the postponement of marriage by young people during the worst years of the economic depression. The 1956 rate for males in the 16 to 24 years age group was exactly double that of 1936 – 130 per 1,000 compared with 65 per 1,000.
It is obvious that changes in economic conditions affect the birthrate, primarily because difficult economic conditions lead people to delay marriage and so cut down the percentage of married women in the child-bearing age groups. It is also obvious that changes in the birthrate will be felt a generation later. For example, the birthrate in present-day New Zealand is adversely affected by the delayed marriages and consequent low birthrate of the 1930s. The girl-babies born in those years are the mothers (actual or potential) of today, and so the low birthrate in the 1930s shows itself today in a low percentage of women in the child-bearing age groups, which are usually considered to be those of from 15 to 44 years of age inclusive. The following table shows the percentages of the female population in the ante-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive age groups at intervals from 1926 to 1961.
The effect of low birthrates in the past on present marriage rates and birthrates is of particular importance as it introduces the possibility of a cycle of low birthrates, low marriage rates, low birthrates, low marriage rates, and so on. This cycle, if it is left to work itself out, would have an approximate 27-year time period corresponding to the time between the birth of a girl and her reaching the maximum age of child bearing. Migration cannot affect these cycles very much, as the proportion of women in the child-bearing ages among migrants differs only by about 3 per cent from the proportion in the whole of the population.
Although it would appear that a cycle of low birthrates and low marriage rates began in the years around 1935, it is also true that we had high birthrates in the years around 1908; thus, if the theory of cycles is to hold without exceptions, the birthrates around 1935 should have been unusually high, whereas, in fact, they were exceptionally low. The reason for the apparent paradox seems to have been the trend towards delayed marriages which has been already noticed. In the 1930s, fewer women were married during those years when fertility was at its peak; and marrying later, they had fewer years of potential child-bearing before them. Similarly, in 1961, the relatively low percentage of women of child-bearing age was partly offset by the higher percentage of those women between 15 and 44 years of age who were actually married and bearing children.
Apart from the depression periods of 1886–90 and 1931–35, the inflow of immigrants into New Zealand has always exceeded the outflow. Immigration booms during the last century have already been mentioned. During this century there were Government-sponsored immigration schemes between 1906 and 1914, and again between 1919 and 1926. In 1947, post-war labour shortages led to a revival of State-assisted immigration, the new policy allowing for the acceptance of certain classes of non-British immigrants. Of the 40,454 assisted immigrants who entered New Zealand between 1 April 1946 and 31 December 1956, 5,594 were from the Netherlands, 91 from Canada, and 113 from other European countries, mainly Austria and Germany.
At the end of 1958, it was decided to restrict assisted immigration by limiting male workers from the United Kingdom to skilled tradesmen, farm workers, and those with the requisite experience for essential industries. At the same time, the recruitment of German, Austrian, Danish, and Swiss migrants was terminated. In 1960 steps were taken to increase the recruitment of skilled workers, and in March 1961 the Government announced a plan to bring up to 5,000 assisted immigrants to New Zealand in that year.
In most years the net migration gain considerably exceeds the number of assisted immigrants, indicating that large numbers of intending residents come to New Zealand unassisted. The following table compares the numbers of assisted immigrants with the net migration figures in three-year groupings over a 15-year period.
|
Assisted Immigrants and Net Migration
Gain
1 April 1949 – 31 March 1964 |
||
| Three Years Ending 31 March | Assisted Immigrants | Net Migration Gain |
| 1952 | 10,409 | 31,066 |
| 1955 | 18,212 | 44,503 |
| 1958 | 14,295 | 34,992 |
| 1961 | 9,458 | 14,825 |
| 1964 | 12,923 | 47,455 |
The net migration inflow has varied considerably during this century – from an inflow of 11 per 1,000 for the period 1901–05 to a net outflow of rather more than one per 1,000 for the period 1931 to 1935. This is the most unpredictable of all the growth components, but fortunately it is also on average the smallest component.
Death rates for the New Zealand population have been comparatively stable during the twentieth century, the lowest five-year period being 1931–35, when the death rate was 8·2 per 1,000, and the highest (excluding the war periods) being the five years 1901 to 1905, when it was 9·9 per 1,000.
Until recent years the Maori death rate has been a disquieting feature. In 1941 it was double the European, but since that year it has fallen almost continuously. In 1958 the Maori death rate of 8·67 per 1,000 was not only the lowest on record, but was also slightly below that for Europeans. Infant mortality rates among the Maoris continue to give cause for concern, but the death rate among the race as a whole has, during recent years, continued slightly below that among Europeans. In the year ending 31 December 1964, the Maori death rate was 6·21 per 1,000 of mean population, while the European death rate was 9·00. A deduction of the death rates from the birthrates gives a natural rate of increase of 36·11 per 1,000 for the Maori population as compared with 13·61 per 1,000 for the European population.
There is obviously an intimate connection between the death rate and the average expectation of life. Life tables depicting the pattern of mortality over the age-span of life for the non-Maori component of New Zealand's population have been constructed at various times since 1880. The most recent tables are based on the 1956 population census, together with mortality statistics for 1955–57.
Since 1880 the improvement in non-Maori life expectancy for both sexes has been most striking for the younger ages but has been relatively small for the advanced ages. Progress in medical science, coupled with improved social conditions, has resulted in substantial reductions in mortality from infectious diseases among infants and children. On the other hand, diseases of middle and old age are less amenable to control.
Life expectancy at birth for a Maori male increased by 3·18 years in the interval 1950–52 to 1955–57, with that for females increasing by 2·80 years. This was a substantial increase in a short period, and is evidence that Maori life expectancy is improving at a fast rate.
In common with most newly developed countries, early nineteenth century New Zealand had a predominantly masculine population. At the first general census of Europeans, taken in 1851, the numbers of males and females were in the proportion of 4 : 3. Following the discovery of gold in 1857 and 1861, there was an influx of several thousand gold miners to the country, reducing the ratio of females to males from 765 per 1,000 in 1858 to 620 in 1861. The selected immigrants of the seventies helped to restore the balance between the sexes, and the proportion of females to males rose from 704 per 1,000 in 1871 to 817 per 1,000 in 1881. From the late seventies onwards, the growing effects of natural increase produced a more even balance.
The graph at top of page 829 illustrates the sex proportions of the European population from 1851 to 1961, and of the Maori population from 1926 to 1961. The high female proportion of 1945 is due solely to the absence of troops overseas. The figure adjusted to include the armed forces gives a more accurate picture of the sex ratio.
The proportion of females, which has increased steadily from 1906 to 1945 (disregarding the war year 1916, and including troops overseas in the 1945 calculation) has decreased slightly since 1945, partly due to a high proportion of male immigrants and possibly influenced by the absence of females overseas on working holidays. Parity of the sexes will probably be reached in a few decades, unless this high proportion of male immigrants continues to upset the trend.
The Maori population has a higher masculinity than the rest of the population, but the trend is for the proportion of females to increase.
In pre-European days and until 1860, the larger part of the population of New Zealand was in the North Island. The South Island was the more densely populated from 1860 until 1900, largely because of the discovery of gold in the sixties, the relatively easy availability of land, and the South Island's freedom from Maori troubles. After 1900, when the populations of the two islands were roughly equal, the North Island went ahead rapidly. This was largely due to the Government's opening up of new lands suitable for dairy farming and available in small lots, which in turn led to improvements in communications culminating in the completion of the Main Trunk railway line from Wellington to Auckland in 1908. The South Island suffered both from the exhaustion of its goldfields and from the development of industry in the North Island centres with larger populations and easier access to world shipping routes, following the opening of the Panama Canal.
The following table shows the populations of the two islands over the past 35 years.
The great bulk of the Maoris has always lived in the North Island. Of the 167,086 Maoris enumerated at the 1961 census, 159,946 were in the North Island, and 7,140 in the South Island. The proportions these figures represent – almost 96 per cent of the Maori population shown as living in the North Island and only 4 per cent in the South Island – have varied relatively little since the first Maori census of 1857–58.
During the two periods, 1926–36 and 1936–45, the total net gain in population to the South Island was, in fact, lower than its gain through natural increase. The movement away from the South Island between 1936 and 1945 was largely due to wartime population disturbances, including the absence of troops overseas, together with the movement of workers to the clothing and munitions factories of the North Island, either voluntarily or under manpower regulations.
Since 1945 the tendency for the North Island to gain population more rapidly than the South has continued, although at a slightly diminished pace.
| Population in North and South Island, 1926–61 | |||
| Census Year | Population (Including Maoris) | ||
| North Island | South Island | Total | |
| No. | No. | No. | |
| 1926 | 892,679 | 515,460 | 1,408,139 |
| 1936 | 1,018,036 | 555,774 | 1,573,810 |
| 1945 | 1,146,292 | 556,006 | 1,702,298 |
| 1951 | 1,313,869 | 625,603 | 1,939,472 |
| 1956 | 1,497,364 | 676,698 | 2,174,062 |
| 1961 | 1,684,785 | 730,199 | 2,414,984 |
| Per Cent | Per Cent | Per Cent | |
| 1926 | 63·39 | 36·61 | 100·00 |
| 1936 | 64·69 | 35·31 | 100·00 |
| 1945 | 67·34 | 32·66 | 100·00 |
| 1951 | 67·74 | 32·26 | 100·00 |
| 1956 | 68·87 | 31·13 | 100·00 |
| 1961 | 69·76 | 30·24 | 100·00 |
The population figures for counties are considerably affected by urban drift – the gradual movement of population from rural areas to the towns. This population trend is neither new nor peculiar to New Zealand. It is common to many countries and seems to mark a stage in economic development. Losses in population during the intercensal period 1956–61 were recorded by about half the counties – 61 out of a total of 121. Of these, 38 were among the 69 counties in the North Island, and 23 among the South Island's total of 52 counties.
Urban drift has taken place over a considerable period – with, however, a marked check between 1926 and 1936. Very severe depression conditions in the latter half of the decade probably constituted the main factor in this trend. Lack of employment in the towns acted as a deterrent to the urban flow, while many unemployed either returned to their homes in country districts or were sent through the Unemployment Board to rural areas to take part in relief works, gold prospecting, and small-farm schemes. Between 1936 and 1945 the marked acceleration in the movement from country to town was a direct result of wartime conditions. In the postwar period the urban drift has continued, though not at the same pace.
The following table shows urban and rural populations at the 1961 census, with the urban population subdivided according to the size of towns. All boroughs and town districts with less than 1,000 population have been classed with county population as rural, as have extra-county islands, while migratory (shipboard) population is excluded.
The table is subject to the disadvantage that a slight increase in the population of towns near the group maxima may throw their whole population into the next group, or a merger of local bodies may produce the same result.
| Urban and Rural Population: Census, 1961 | |||
| Boroughs and Town Districts with Population of | Number of Towns | Number | Per Cent of Total |
| 1,000– 2,499 | 33 | 56,117 | 2·33 |
| 2,500– 4,999 | 39 | 136,605 | 5·67 |
| 5,000– 9,999 | 29 | 197,180 | 8·18 |
| 10,000–24,999 | 21 | 361,023 | 14·98 |
| 25,000 or over | 12 | 782,955 | 32·50 |
| Totals, urban | 134 | 1,533,880 | 63·66 |
| Totals, rural | .. | 875,539 | 36·34 |
| Grand totals (excluding migratory) | .. | 2,409,419 | 100·00 |
Urban and rural communities are not evenly distributed. The South Island, for example, contains proportionately a greater rural population than does the North Island.
At the 1961 census a total of 1,439,802 people, amounting to 59·62 per cent of the total New Zealand population, was enumerated in the 18 urban areas. These urban areas are statistical conceptions and not administrative units. Their purpose is to provide definite, stable, and comparable boundaries for the larger centres of population. In addition to the central city or borough, they include neighbouring boroughs and parts of counties which are regarded as suburban to the centre of population. Moving from north to south, the 18 urban areas are Whangarei, Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Rotorua, Gisborne, Napier, Hastings, New Plymouth, Wanganui, Palmerston North, Hutt, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch, Timaru, Dunedin, and Invercargill.
The percentage of the population living in the urban areas has risen since 1956, when a total of 1,253,280 people, amounting to 57·65 per cent of the total population, was enumerated in these areas. This rise of 2 per cent between 1956 and 1961 is the most considerable intercensal rise since 1945. In 1936 the percentage of the population living in the 18 urban areas was 52·70 per cent. As there was a gap of almost 10 years – a period that included the Second World War – between the 1936 census and that of 1945, it is hardly surprising that the population living in urban areas was found to have risen by over 4 per cent, to a total of 56·92 per cent in 1945. Between 1945 and 1956, increases in the percentage of urban area dwellers in the total population were relatively slight. The figure was 57·44 per cent in 1951, and 57·65 per cent in 1956. It should be noted, however, that the dwellers in urban areas do not constitute the entire urban population of New Zealand. A large number of boroughs and county towns of considerable size are outside any urban area. This includes some boroughs with populations of over 10,000 such as Masterton, Blenheim, Ashburton, and Oamaru.
For many years past, over 70 per cent of the urban area population has been concentrated in five main centres – the urban areas of Auckland, Hutt, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin. In recent censuses the percentage has tended to fall slightly from the peak of 73·64 per cent recorded in 1945, which was partly attributable no doubt to wartime conditions. The lower proportion of the total urban area population in these five centres (71·08 per cent in 1961) may indicate a tendency for urban area growth to be more evenly spread.
The urban areas as a whole are growing in population more quickly than the country as a whole. Between 1956 and 1961 urban area population increased by 14·9 per cent, whereas the total New Zealand population increased by only 11·08 per cent. The rate of growth varied considerably between different urban areas, ranging from 31·70 per cent in the urban area of Tauranga to 5·67 per cent in the urban area of Dunedin.
As cities become larger, a movement of population from the central areas to the perimeter or outer areas is commonly experienced. Among the main reasons for this is the demand for central sites for commercial and industrial purposes, with a consequent rise in values, and increases in local taxation. In New Zealand, as a result of this trend, the larger cities such as Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin are tending to develop “hollow centres” from the point of view of population. Paradoxically, while the taking-over of central building sites for shops, offices, banks, and places of entertainment etc., is resulting in a relative depopulation of the inner areas of the main cities, the very facilities and employment opportunities offered as a result of this development are largely responsible, along with the growth of suburban secondary industries, for attracting further population to the same cities, with a consequent urban spread.
In considering the size of the future population, a significant fact which emerges is that the abnormally low birthrates of 1935 have created a wave formation in the population age structure which, unless it is consciously or accidentally corrected, will repeat itself in approximate 27-year cycles of low numbers of women in child-bearing age groups and low birthrates. Thus a considerable degree of distortion in the age structure of the population may remain for a long time, causing varying stresses and strains on those parts of the economic and social structure which have to deal with the resulting rapid changes in rates of growth. Economic conditions, which are comparatively unpredictable, are an important influence on births, but relative economic conditions which are entirely unpredictable are an even more important influence on migration.
Economic booms and depressions do not affect all countries in the same way. A predominantly primary producing country such as New Zealand is likely to be harder hit by a fall in world prices than is a predominantly manufacturing country such as the United Kingdom. As a result, we find a tendency for population to flow back to the United Kingdom in times of world economic depression.
A significant effect of this from the point of view of the growth of New Zealand population is that under difficult economic conditions there is a tendency towards migration outflow at the very time when the birthrate tends to fall owing to delayed marriages.
It will be obvious that forecasts of future population involve an element of uncertainty. This is due on the one hand to incomplete knowledge of the psychological, physiological, political, and economic factors underlying changes in fertility, mortality, and migration levels, and on the other hand to the difficulty of accurately forecasting the future course of those factors which are understood.
The figures of projected population shown in the table below have been prepared by the Department of Statistics, but it should be understood that these projections merely show the effect of the assumptions, listed with the table on the future growth of the existing population. The assumptions, however, have been adopted only after careful studies of trends in the patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration and, in the light of available current information, are regarded as those most likely to produce realistic projections over the length of the projection period.
by John Victor Tuwhakahewa Baker, M.A., M.COM., D.P.A., Government Statistician, Wellington.